€50,000 of paid-in equity is already on the balance sheet, contributed by the three co-founders. Estonia's non-dilutive instruments — an Enterprise Estonia start-up grant of up to €20,000 and a KredEx start-up loan or guarantee — are the intended next layer, in place of an external pre-seed round.
A quick-reference view, pulled straight from the 2026 business plan. Nothing below is a projection unless it says so.
Estonia has one of the highest apartment-dwelling rates in the EU: 61% of the population lives in flats, where installing a private charger is not a decision an individual can make. The wallboxes those drivers need are already installed nearby, on private driveways, and sit idle most of the day.
| Tier | Definition | EV Charge Flows scope |
|---|---|---|
| TAM | All EV charging spend across Estonia and the wider Baltic region | Full public and private charging market across Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania |
| SAM | EV charging spend addressable by a peer-to-peer marketplace model | Sessions that could plausibly move to a private charger given location and driver behaviour, concentrated in dense apartment-heavy metro areas |
| SOM | Realistic 3-year capture given team size, capital and go-to-market pace | Tallinn-Tartu-Pärnu rollout |
BEVs took a 7.1% share of the Estonian light-vehicle market over the first eight months of 2025, with plug-ins reaching 17.3% of passenger cars — up from 10.2% a year earlier. This is growth from a small base rather than a saturated market, which is where a supply-side network has the most room to matter.
Near-universal spot-price electricity contracts keep a host's marginal cost low and legible (the Nord Pool EE area price averaged €80.38/MWh in 2025) — and Estonia's public charging is among the most expensive in Europe, which widens the gap a host can price into.
The host pool is finally large enough to support a marketplace, but no incumbent has built the peer-to-peer layer on top of it — and the regulatory work that layer requires hasn't been started by any of them.
Competitive moat
Named honestly
No subscription, no minimum, no membership tier. That's a deliberate simplification from an earlier tiered model — it keeps both sides' economics transparent and immediate from the first session.
| Revenue stream | Mechanism | EV Charge Flows's share | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Session commission | 20% of every completed charging session | 20% | Primary |
| Reserved booking | Optional slot held in advance for the driver | 100% | Secondary |
| Fleet and business accounts | Consolidated billing for company vehicles | 100% | Growth |
| Data and utilisation insight | Aggregated and anonymised, for energy retailers and municipalities | 100% | Future |
Reserved Booking and Fleet accounts are 100%-EV Charge Flows-share because they are platform conveniences layered on top of the charging session, not a share of the host's electricity sale.
Roughly 4.7 hours at 7.4 kW, a typical home wallbox rate, priced at €0.38/kWh — just under the €0.41 Estonian public-charging median.
| Line | Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Driver pays | €13.30 | 35 kWh at €0.38/kWh |
| Host receives (80%) | €10.64 | Automatic via Stripe Connect |
| Host's own electricity cost | –€5.14 | Spot-contract marginal cost ≈ €0.147/kWh |
| Host net margin | €5.50 | On an otherwise idle asset |
| EV Charge Flows commission (20%) | €2.66 | Deducted from the session |
| Less VAT (24%) | –€0.64 | On the commission only |
| Less card processing | –€0.45 | ≈3.4% of the transaction |
| EV Charge Flows keeps | €1.57 | Net of VAT and processing |
Before any expansion to a second Estonian city or a second country. Year 1 runs August 2026 to July 2027 and is modelled around a Q1 2027 public launch, with volume accruing month by month from the launch ramp rather than a flat year-end charger count.
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Listed chargers | 150 | 700 | 2,000 |
| Active drivers | 89 | 950 | 2,600 |
| Charging sessions | 6,396 | 68,400 | 187,200 |
| Energy delivered (kWh) | 223,860 | 2,394,000 | 6,552,000 |
| Marketplace volume | €85,067 | €909,720 | €2,489,760 |
| Paid to hosts | €68,053 | €727,776 | €1,991,808 |
| EV Charge Flows revenue (net of VAT) | €13,556 | €144,975 | €396,775 |
| Operating costs | €166,875 | €180,746 | €316,346 |
| EBITDA | –€153,319 | –€35,771 | +€80,428 |
Total value transacted through the platform, with EV Charge Flows's own net revenue shown inside each bar.
Breakeven arrives partway through Year 3, at a 20.3% margin on €2.49M of volume.
| Line | Amount | Cumulative cash position |
|---|---|---|
| Opening capital | €50,000 | €50,000 |
| Year 1 EBITDA | –€153,319 | €16,681 |
| Year 2 EBITDA | –€35,771 | –€19,090 (trough) |
| Year 3 EBITDA | +€80,428 | +€61,338 |
Paid-in founder equity today, with Estonia's non-dilutive instruments — the Enterprise Estonia (EIS) start-up grant of up to €20,000 and a KredEx start-up loan or loan guarantee — as the intended next layer rather than an external pre-seed round. That keeps founder ownership intact through launch.
| Source | Amount | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Paid-in cash equity | €50,000 | In place on the balance sheet |
| Total company capital | €50,000 | In place; non-dilutive instruments to follow |
The EIS start-up grant is capped at €20,000 and is open to companies trading for under three years with sales revenue at or below €40,000, and requires the creation of at least one job. KredEx offers start-up loans and loan guarantees on favourable terms. Neither has been applied for yet, so neither is counted in company capital above.
| Use of funds — Year 1 | Budget |
|---|---|
| Team — two founders, full-time on payroll | €50,000 |
| R&D services — session assurance, regulator opinions, DAC7 build | €45,000 |
| Marketing & host recruitment, both sides of the market | €30,000 |
| Legal & compliance — formation, GDPR, DAC7, contracts | €15,000 |
| Host liability insurance — cover for every host | €12,000 |
| Cloud & software — OCPP backend, hosting, monitoring | €6,000 |
| Accounting & admin — bookkeeping, audit, statutory filings | €6,000 |
| Total | €164,000 |
The two founders drawing salary are expected to be the CEO and the CTO, on the basis that the launch phase needs both external-facing and engineering capacity full time. Estonia places no residency requirement on board members, so neither role is constrained by where a founder lives.
The grant funds five months of genuine research: establishing what energy a session delivered from charger telemetry alone, predicting availability for chargers that publish no data, modelling host cost against hourly spot prices, and securing written regulator positions from TTJA and Transpordiamet.
| Sprint project line | € |
|---|---|
| Founder salaries, R&D portion | 18,750 |
| Indirect personnel and overhead | 10,500 |
| Purchased R&D services | 45,000 |
| Cloud, data feeds, software | 5,000 |
| Pilot instrumentation and field validation | 54,083 |
| Total eligible project | 133,333 |
| Grant at a 75% funding rate | 100,000 |
Self-financing of €33,333 is covered by the equity already on the balance sheet.
Separated deliberately from the projections above, so nobody has to work out which is which.
| Milestone | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Android app | Built · testing | Covers referral, messaging, incident reporting, security deposits and analytics. Not yet publicly downloadable. |
| Internal test transactions | Complete | Full booking, payment, dispute, rating and host-payout flow validated end to end. |
| Founding team | Complete | Three co-founders (CEO, CFO, CMO) plus two salaried team members (CTO, COO). Full profiles. |
| Paid-in equity | €50,000 | On the balance sheet, contributed by the three co-founders. |
| Sprint Grant eligibility | Gates cleared | Both eligibility gates cleared; application in progress. |
| Business plan and financial model | Complete | Three-year projections and use-of-funds detail, with every figure traceable to a model input cell. |
| Regulatory groundwork | Designed | VAT structuring, MID metering approach and DAC7 mechanism designed; written regulator positions targeted for the Q4 2026 pilot. |
| Host liability insurance programme | Not yet secured | Budgeted at €12,000 and targeted ahead of the Q4 2026 pilot. |
| 20-charger Tallinn pilot | Not started | Planned for Q4 2026 — the proof point for onboarding speed and session-assurance methodology. |
| Estonia market launch | Not started | This plan's funding is sized specifically to fund a dedicated Estonia entry, starting in Tallinn. |
| Market research | Two survey runs | 104 responses in other European markets; a separate Estonia-specific survey still running. |
With indicative likelihood and impact, and the mitigation built into the operating plan.
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slow two-sided growth if host and driver acquisition aren't balanced | Medium | High | Community and partnership-led acquisition to build host supply ahead of driver demand campaigns |
| Incumbent response — a network launches its own P2P offering or prices aggressively | Medium | Medium | First-mover position, community pricing advantage, and host density built before incumbents react |
| Regulatory change on charging infrastructure, energy resale, metering or platform liability | Low–Medium | Medium | Architecture already designed; dedicated legal/compliance budget; metering rules tightening from October 2028 already on the roadmap |
| Board residency — Estonia sets no residency requirement for board members | Low–Medium | Medium | Estonia places no residency requirement on the management board. A licensed local contact person is required only if no board member resides in Estonia, the EEA or Switzerland — an administrative appointment, not a constraint on who can serve. |
| EV market speed — slower adoption or policy volatility delays growth | Medium | Medium | Diversified revenue streams and a multi-country path reduce dependence on any single adoption curve |
| Host onboarding speed slower than the growth bridge assumes | Medium | Medium | OCPP-native onboarding needs no installation or site visit; the 20-charger pilot exists specifically to test real onboarding speed first |
| Low booking frequency — listed chargers see poor utilisation | Medium | Medium | Host utilisation tracked as a core metric; pricing guidance and search ranking nudge hosts away from listing and forgetting |
| Insurance / liability — property damage or an electrical incident during a session | Low–Medium | High | Terms of service defining liability allocation before public launch; €12,000 budgeted, targeted in place before the first pilot session |
| Payment fraud — stolen cards, chargeback abuse, fraudulent accounts | Low–Medium | Medium | PCI-DSS-compliant gateway with authorisation-then-capture; dispute SLA and rating thresholds flag suspicious accounts |
| Taloyhtiö restrictions — a housing company bylaw restricts third-party charger use | Medium | Medium | Property partnerships engage the housing company directly; listings in restricted buildings are flagged for the host to confirm permission |
| Team composition — two of the five (CTO, COO) are salaried rather than equity co-founders | Medium | Medium | All five profiles complete, including direct P2P EV charging operating experience from the CEO; team-member retention without equity remains a factor to monitor |
| Financial model risk — the loss path and Year 3 breakeven are assumptions, not outcomes | Medium | Medium | Every figure traces to a model input cell, allowing scenario stress-testing against the pilot's real conversion and session data |
Recent sector activity supports acquisition as a credible outcome rather than a hopeful assumption. The alternative — and not mutually exclusive — path is continued independent growth funded by a future Series A once the network and the profitability trajectory are demonstrated with real data.
The complete 2026 business plan, the three-year model with every line as a formula, and the regulatory documentation are available to serious counterparties on request.
EV fleet data: elektriauto.ee Estonian EV database (as of 1 Aug 2026). Vehicle fleet: Statistikaamet. Housing: Eurostat, Housing in Europe. VAT: Estonian Tax and Customs Board (EMTA).